I was talking to a friend yesterday and, looking for an
analogy to explain some impression I had of the current economic and political
situation in Spain, I was reminded of the case of Britain in the 70’s. A
hugely, unsustainably, unproductive public sector, controlled by the unions who
more or less dictated their own terms; millions of people paid to burn money;
an ever-smaller productive sector struggling to pay for it all; successive
governments full of cowards, incompetents and ideologues who could not, or would
not, deal with the situation; an increasing number of immigrants willing to do
jobs and accept wages that the welfare state, and general prosperity, have made the locals treat with
contempt.
The role of the Indian and Pakistani immigrants is being played by the Chinese. Although there have been Chinese restaurants in most Spanish towns for over 30 years, in the last few years there has been an explosion in corner shops and cheap boutiques run by Chinese. They work very long hours, have low overheads and no employees, and offer people what they want when they want it. They give their children Spanish names and make sure they integrate, study hard and don't have to spend their lives working 15 hours a day 7 days a week to make a living. It all sounds very familiar.
Because of the system of public employment, devised to
combat a particular type of political corruption in the 19th C, it
is almost impossible to remove the unnecessary, lazy or incompetent. With the problems
the country has now there is a need for someone to change a lot of things.
Mariano Rajoy, despite his merits (not being Zapatero is a good start), is
unlikely to have the guts to do what has to be done. It isn’t just fighting
with the unions and losing the next election that’s the problem; it’s also that
restructuring the entire economy means a great deal of hardship for many
people. In 80’s Britain the result was that by 1988 it was a different country
from the Britain of 1979. Without the reforms, without Margaret Thatcher, it
would not have happened. But for many people it meant years of hardship before
the change caught up with them.
I don’t see any Spanish government in the near future
changing the employment conditions of their employees (they certainly won’t ask
those of us who pay them what we think). So there will be no 80's in Spain in the near future, but we could do with one.
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